Well, it was a wild final day of the 2021 baseball season with multiple single game tie breaking playoff scenarios dominating the diamond. This year MLB did something different by starting all games on Sunday at the exact same time, thus eliminating the slight adrenaline edge a team might gain knowing the team they were chasing had lost. In the end, after the dust had settled and the playoff matchups were set, none of the tie breaking games came to fruition. So, let’s take a look at the matchups and how the playoffs appear, to me anyway, going forward.
First, all those potential single elimination games. The American League was by far the most intriguing. We had the three division champions set but there were still four teams vying for two wild card spots. And the odd thing was, none of the four teams met each other for the final weekend series. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox were dead even while the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays were both one game out. One possible scenario would be a loss by both the Yankees and Red Sox against wins by the Blue Jays and Mariners, thus producing a four-way tie. I’m not sure how MLB would determine the matchups, but one thing is sure, there would be two single elimination games to determine the final wild card spots, followed by another single elimination game to determine which of the two remaining teams would advance. The Mariners lost, ending their season with a 90-72 record. The Blue Jays won moving them to 91-71. But both the Yankees and Red Sox won to finish 92-70. That means a classic meet up between the two legendary enemies for a one game playoff.
The National League was a little simpler. The Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves were locked in as division winners while the St. Louis Cardinals had clinched one of the two wild card spots. That left the San Francisco Giants leading my beloved Los Angeles Dodgers by one game. If the Giants lose to the San Diego Padres and the Dodgers beat the Milwaukee Brewers, they are tied. That means a one game playoff, the winner of that game winning the division while the loser gets the second wild card spot. The loser then plays a second single elimination game against the Cardinals to determine which wild card team advances. The Giants won finishing the season at 107-55 while the Dodgers, by virtue of also winning, finished 106-56. They became the first wild card team with over 100 wins. They also became the first team with as many as 106 wins while finishing second.
I’d like to see MLB tweak their formula just a bit. I brought this up in my mid-season review and I think the way the season ended strengthens my argument. First, I am okay with a single game elimination to break ties. Whether that is two teams tied for first place or two teams tied for a wild card spot. It may seem harsh, but the season is long enough already. The two teams have identical records, thus the tie, so a one game, loser-goes-home, elimination seems fair. Keep in mind that, in most cases, the loser would go home. But not always. With the Dodgers/Giants situation both teams would advance, it’s simply the loser would have to play an additional single elimination wild card game. Which brings me to my proposed tweak. I say make the wild card series a true series, best two out of three. In the National League you have one wild card team, the Dodgers with 106 wins, playing the Cardinals with 90 wins. In one game anything can happen. The starting pitcher could be off. You could have a Bill Buckner. It hardly seems fair that, after 162 games and 106 wins, the entire season could end because of a muffed ground ball. Also award the team with the better record home field advantage for all three games. Of course, that creates a problem with the Yankees/Red Sox since they have identical records. I’ll let the big brains at MLB figure out the various tie breaking formulas. But wouldn’t it be great to see those teams go after one another for two and possibly three games. Think of the history! Think of the story lines! Think of the drama! Think of the additional TV revenue and gate receipts! I’m sure MLB is looking at the last one.
So how did my mid-season predictions stack up against the final results? Let’s take a look. In the American League I correctly predicted the Tampa Bay Rays would win the division. I also predicted the Chicago White Sox to win their division. Not much of a stretch when you consider the Sox were about 10 games out in first place at that time. I also expected the Oakland A’s to overtake the Houston Astros for the division title (they didn’t), but I expected Houston to slip in as a wild card along with the Boston Red Sox. I was right about the Red Sox coming in as a wild card, but Houston just turned it up a notch in the second half and could not be caught. I was right about Houston making the playoffs, they just did it as a division winner. The only team that did not make the playoffs that I expected would was the Oakland A’s, who were supplanted by the New York Yankees as the second wild card.
While things went pretty much as expected in the American League, with the exception of the Oakland A’s and the New York Yankees, things were a bit more helter skelter in the National League. I had predicted that the San Francisco Giants would fall off the torrid pace they had established early on, and the Los Angeles Dodgers would pass them for the division title. Neither of those things happened. I figured the Eastern Conference would be a tightly contested race all season. I thought the Philadelphia Phillies were really hungry this year and would eventually win the division, not by merit of wins and losses but simply by the fact that every other team in the division is so awful. I also thought the Cincinnati Reds would put together a second half run and overtake the Milwaukee Brewers to win the division. As for the wild cards, I thought the western division was likely to have three teams in the playoffs with the Dodgers winning it and the Padres and Giants punching wild card tickets. Possibly all three teams with over 100 wins. So, a lot happened. Somehow the Giants were able to maintain that incredible pace for the entire second half. As did the Dodgers. I think both teams really pushed one another this year, which is why the Giants finished with 107 wins, a franchise best, and the Dodgers tied a franchise best with 106 wins. I tip my hat to the Giants. They were not supposed to be this good and I congratulate them on winning the division. The Padres were the big surprise. Everyone thought it would be a duel between the Dodgers and the Padres, yet after the All Star break the Padres went into freefall, actually finishing under .500 with a very talented team. Instead, the second wild card berth went to the St. Louis Cardinals who came out of nowhere after a very shaky first half. This included a franchise record seventeen game winning streak that put them firmly in the wild card spot. Meanwhile, Milwaukee just kept on winning and held St. Louis off, finishing five games ahead of the Cards. In the east, the Atlanta Braves, not unlike St. Louis, came out of nowhere. Most people, including myself, wrote them off when they lost Acuna for the season. But they traded for Joc Pederson and made a few other key acquisitions before the trade deadline, managing to put it all together in the second half. Like I said, this is a weak division, and Atlanta won it with a meager 88 victories against 74 losses. Philadelphia finished second with 82 wins, and nobody else in division was above .500.
How will things go in the playoffs? In the wild card round I like the Dodgers taking out the Cardinals in that one game playoff. They will have Scherzer on the mound and he has been lights out for the most part. Plus, their offense seems to be hitting on all cylinders. Adam Wainwright is pitching for the Cardinals and has had his problems against the Dodgers, especially at Dodger Stadium. New York against Boston is going to be a little harder to predict. These teams hate each other. The Yankees will start Gerrit Cole who has was an early contender for the Cy Young award although he tailed off in the second half. While he has struggled over his past few starts, he still put up respectable numbers for the season. Boston will be starting Nathan Eovaldi. His season was mediocre at best and, like Cole, he has not pitched his best lately. I keep going back and forth on this one, but I think I will go with Boston because they will be playing in Fenway Park. I think it will come down to the hitting against two struggling pitchers. Boston has just been more consistent on offense than have the Yankees. But that’s the problem with a single elimination series. One of the pitchers might come out looking like Cy Young reincarnated. Or the offense will get hot and start hitting the ball out of the park, something both teams can do.
Next, we have two best of five series in each league. I still like the Dodgers beating the Giants. Even with Kershaw probably out for the playoffs they have superior pitching. And the way their offense has been hitting lately, I think any team they play is going to be in trouble. Then we have Atlanta against Milwaukee. I haven’t watched much of either team this season. I was not impressed with Milwaukee in the final series against the Dodgers, although they weren’t playing for anything and were using their starters sparingly. On the other hand, Atlanta put together a pretty good second half, making up for the loss of Acuna. That in itself is impressive. Also, after the way they were on the cusp of going to the World Series last season, losing to the Dodgers after holding a three-games-to-one lead, I think they’re out to prove something. Over in the American League, I’m still hating Houston for beating (cheating) the Dodgers in the 2017 World Series. That being said, they played probably the most consistent ball of anybody in the American league, and I expect them to win out over the Chicago White Sox. Tampa Bay is my choice to win over the wild card Boston Red Sox. I don’t know how the Rays are able to consistently win with that team, but they do! All the way to the World Series last year.
That will pit the Dodgers against the Atlanta Braves in the NLCS for the second consecutive year. And, for the second consecutive year, I think the Dodgers will beat the Braves. The Braves may have something to prove, but they win’t prove it this year. In the ALCS we have Tampa Bay playing Houston. This is a very interesting matchup. On the one hand, you’ve got Houston that wins big. On the other hand, you have Tampa Bay, that just wins. It’s a tough call. Last year Tampa Bay lost the World Series due to, what I consider, mismanagement. They should have never taken Blake Snell out in Game 6. That’s the problem with modern day analytics. Sometimes you just have to trust your players. According to analytics, there’s no way the Giants should have had the season they had. But analytics can’t tell what is in a player’s heart. All that being said, I’m going to go with Big Win Houston. Mainly because I want to see the Dodgers get revenge in the World Series.
A Los Angeles Dodgers/ Houston Astros rematch in the World Series is perfect symmetry. One of the things I like about baseball is the game is so symmetrical. It just seems right that the Dodgers and the Astros will face off again. It also seems symmetrical that a wild card team, with the second-best record in all of baseball, wins the World Series. This time I predict the Dodgers to win in five games. We will see how I do.
With the baseball season coming to an end in a few weeks, I will probably be dropping in a few historical points of interest about the game this winter. I am also planning something special for the fall but will save that for later. That’s it for this week. Next week I may do a blog looking at each individual team and how they did or didn’t live up to expectations, and what they may need to do for next season. in the meantime, as always, swing for the fences.
