MLB 2022: NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

            LOS ANGELES DODGERS (106 – 56 in 2021)

The Dodgers are consensus favorites to win the World Series this year, picked by just about every preseason pole to do just that. It seems like every season they put out the strongest lineup in the major leagues, at least on paper. Last year they won 106 games, which was only good enough for a second-place finish behind the Giants 107 wins. Then, in the National League Championship Series, they ran into a very hot Atlanta Braves team, that was probably still smarting from the Dodgers amazing comeback from a 3 games to 1 deficit in last year’s Championship series. Anyway, that was then, and this is a brand-new season. Lose Corey Segar to free agency? Fine! Go out and sign Freddie Freeman, now one of the four former MVPs on the roster. Last season the Dodgers had a Major League best 2.96 ERA. This despite losing reigning Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer early in the season due to domestic violence issues and then losing up and coming Dustin May to Tommy John surgery. Since he was mostly, a non-contributor last season, the recent two-year suspension of Bauer probably has little on field effect. Even so, the starting pitching may be the Dodgers biggest weakness this season. They have Walker Buehler and Julio Urias, making up one of the better one two combinations in baseball. Clayton Kershaw was off to one of his best starts in recent memory but had to be put on the shelf with a pelvic injury. As great a pitcher as Kershaw is, a certain Hall-of-Famer, he has been very fragile the last three or four seasons. The remainder of the starting staff consists of Tony Gonsolin, Tyler Anderson, David Price, and maybe Andre Jackson and Mitch White. But the Dodgers also have a history of taking borderline pitchers and turning them into Cy Young contenders. In the offseason they signed Andrew Haney and his 5.83 ERA to an $8.5 million contract. Maybe they saw something. And there is help on the horizon with Dustin May due to come back sometime around the All-Star break. Whether or not Kershaw’s pelvic problem is a minor set-back or a season long problem remains to be seen. Still, I won’t bet against them with that lineup. And about that lineup! There is an infield consisting of Freeman, any combination of Gavin Lux, Max Muncy, or a surprising Hanser Alberto at second base, Trea Turner at short stop, and a still productive Justin Turner at third. Behind the plate is Will Smith, one of the best hitting young catchers in the game. The outfield boasts Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, and Chris Taylor. They should win the division, and I don’t think they’ll need 106 wins to do it this year either.

            SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (107 – 55)

After last season we have to take the San Francisco Giants seriously. All season long they seemed to be playing way above their heads. Everyone kept expecting them to finally hit the wall and watch the Dodgers blow past them. They never did! A lot of the credit has to go to Farhan Zaidi and his staff for putting together this team, which was built mainly on team chemistry. The results speak for themselves. As for the pitching, they lost Kevin Gausman, but Logan Webb had a breakout season so, with those high expectations, the Giants brought in Carlos Rodon, Matthew Boyd, and Alex Cobb with returning pitchers Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani. That may be an upgrade on their starting staff from last season, which is saying a lot since they had the third best ERA in Major League Baseball.  It will take more than just pitching though. With all the success of last season, people tend to forget that a lot of aging players had career years. The question is, can they repeat that success two years in a row? Especially now that team leader Buster Posey has retired, leaving the catcher position full of question marks. To review Brandon Belt will turn 34 this season. Brandon Crawford is 35 and Evan Longoria is 36. Tommy La Stella is 33 and Mike Yastrzemski is a mere babe at 31. Adding Joc Pedersen will help, but he is 30. Still, he is exciting to watch and always seems to save his best at bats for the postseason. The thing is, this team could lose 15 more games this year and still have a very decent 92 win season. I think they will continue to surprise people and, while I don’t think they can approach 107 victories for a second season, I think they will make the playoffs in second place behind the Dodgers.

            SAN DIEGO PADRES (79 – 83)

The Padres just had one of those seasons last year where everything that could go wrong did go wrong. For some reason their pitching just did not live up to expectations in 2021. Any staff with Yu Darvish and Blake Snell should be better than they were. To help out they acquired Nick Martinez, Chris Paddack and Ryan Weathers. Not to mention they will have a healthy Mike Clevinger. They also made a trade with the Yankees and got Luke Voit at first base. Personally, I think a lot of the problems with the Padres can be traced to the coaching staff. Apparently, ownership agrees as they brought in a proven manager in Bob Melvin. Melvin is one of those managers who always seems to be able to do more with less. He will have to do just that as the Padres lost the very talented Fernando Tatis before the season even started to a wrist injury. The scary part is they will get a rested Tatis back for the second half the season. And so far, even without Tatis, they have managed to stay in the thick of things in the early going. They just have to avoid the same meltdown they suffered last season at the stretch run. If they are able to do that, and I think they will, they should make the playoffs in one of the most difficult divisions in baseball, with the possible exception of the American League East.

            COLORADOD ROCKIES (74 – 87)

The Rockies have the misfortune of playing in the toughest division in the National League. With the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres ahead of them, they really have their work to even stay in contention cut out for them. Still, when it comes to the Colorado Rockies you just have to scratch your head and wonder. Last season they traded away Nolan Arenado in a move to cut salary, or so it seemed. That seems a natural enough reaction when you are placing a distant fourth in a three-team race. But then, this year, they did a complete reversal and signed Kris Bryant to a huge contract. They also lost Trevor Story and John Gray. The one thing they do have, even with the loss of Gray, is a strong starting staff and a reasonably solid bullpen. It’s the hitting that’s going to be suspect. They could sure use a good hitting third baseman. Oh wait!  they traded Arenado last season!

            ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (52 – 110)

The Diamondbacks were probably a better team than their record would indicate. Like some other teams, they just had a year where they were snake bit. Pun intended. Trouble is, as the Rockies can attest to, this is a very competitive division. Other than adding a couple of aging relievers in Mark Melancon (37), and Oliver Perz (40), starter Zach Davies, and light hitting Jordan Luplow, they really didn’t do much to maintain pace with the Dodgers, Giants, or Padres. If those three teams are nuclear powers then Arizona, as well as Colorado, are the Duchies of Grand Fenwick. (Google it)! They should, hopefully, avoid the embarrassment of another 100 loss season but, probably not by much.

So there you have it, my take on all six divisions in both the American and National leagues. To review, this is who I am picking to make the playoffs.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

WEST – Houston Astros

CENTRAL – Chicago White Sox

EAST – Toronto Blue Jays

WILD CARDS – Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins

NATIONAL LEAGUE

EAST – New York Mets

CENTRAL – Milwaukee Brewers

WEST – Los Angeles Dodgers

WILD CARDS – San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies

It’s very early in the season and there is still a whole lot of baseball to be played. The fortunes of a team or, indeed, a player can turn on a dime. In the early going the American League West is a bit of a surprise. I thought the Angels would be tough, but they are proving to be a lot tougher than I expected. I thought pitching would be their weakness but, so far at least, their pitching has been a strength. Taylor Ward has been a big and unexpected surprise and having Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon all available at the same time most of an admittedly early season has also been a huge boost. Unfortunately, it’s the Seattle Mariners that have not lived up to expectations as they attempt to extend their streak of not making the playoffs, the longest in North American Sports.

In the Central division, Minnesota has not only stayed close to but currently leads the Chicago White Sox by 3 games. Cleveland has been hanging unexpectedly tough as well. This could well be a three team knock down drag out fight. The Sox won’t have it so easy this year. Meanwhile, Kansas City and Detroit have been bringing up the rear, as expected.

The Yankees have been the surprise of the American League East. I thought the fact that Aaron Judge and the Yankees could not come to a contractual agreement would weigh heavily on him and be a distraction. Instead, he has single handedly put the team on his shoulders and been carrying them. Tampa Bay and Toronto are about where I expected them to be. Boston is where I expected the Yankees to be, so those two teams have flipped positions. It’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out.

The National League is better at living up to early expectations, more or less. In the East, the New York Mets are the powerhouse I had expected them to be and are running away with the division in the early going. Atlanta has tailed off as I expected but they started off slow last year and won the World Series so we can’t count them out entirely this early. Miami is playing better than expected while the Phillies are somewhat worse than expected.

In the Central division Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Chicago are right about where I expected them to be. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have flipped positions. Cincinnati’s season is going south very quickly while the Pirates youngsters are playing above their heads, even if they are only 15 – 21 as of this writing.

In the West, probably the easiest division to predict, it’s the Dodgers, the Padres, and the Giants. The Padres seem to be coming together as a team in the absence of Fernando Tatis. When he returns, they could be a force to be reckoned with, as if they aren’t already. The Giants are the Giants and are still surprising people. Colorado got off to a fast start, but they have faltered as of late. Arizona looks like they’re trying to make good on their promise not to lose in triple digits again this season.

Come playoff time, I expect both Toronto and Houston to get byes in the first round of the American League playoffs while the three wildcard teams and the White Sox slug it out. It’s a tough call but I expect the Chicago White Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays to both advance to the next round. The Rays will probably match up against Toronto, who will end the Rays season, while the White Sox get whipped in Houston. Toronto against Houston is going to be tough, but I’m going to go with the Blue Jays to win the Pennant go to the World Series.

In the National League look for the Dodgers and the Mets to get first round byes. Unfortunately for the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies they will be going up against the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres. No matter how the matchups are, I don’t see either team getting by those two powerhouses meaning the next round will feature three teams from the Western division and the Mets. I have to admit here, the next two rounds, while possible, are probably more wishful thinking on my part. While the Mets take the Padres out the Dodgers will go up against the Giants in an epic matchup. This is a series that will captivate every fan on the left coast. I see the Dodgers advancing, mostly because I would love to see a Dodgers/Mets championship series. I see the Dodgers taking out the Mets in seven games. In the World Series I see them taking out Toronto in six.

And the crowd goes wild. Dodgers World Series champs! Dodgers World Series champs! Yeah, I’ll admit it, I’m a Homer. For the last few years, it seems that the Dodgers have been head and shoulders above the rest of Major League Baseball. At least on paper. Over the last five years they have been to the World Series three times, winning once. That feat is matched by the Houston Astros, but we know they cheated to get there at least once. This year there are several very good-looking teams that match up well with the Dodgers. Houston is there once again and that would be a fun World Series to see the Dodgers and the Astros square off one last time. Toronto has an excellent team as do the Mets. So do the Chicago White Sox. So, the rest of baseball is catching up with the Boys in Blue. This was a strange winter. Not only was there the lockout, but there was just a lot of movement in the free agent market. Much more than in past years. Also, a lot of trades went down. While this may be an aberration, I tend to think it is the way things are trending in baseball. At least for the next several years, as teams try to buy a World Series championship on the free agent market. And, while the Dodgers have picked up a number of free agents that have been very helpful to the team, don’t forget that they also have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. I think, in the long run, a baseball team is going to be only as successful as their farm system allows.