The All-Star game was one week ago. By rights I should have done this last week but better late than never. Here I’ll look at each team and their progress this season verses their expectations. I’ll start with the worst teams and work my way to the top. There have been some surprises this year, both good and bad. Of course, that is what makes any sport fun. The rise of an unexpected contender and the collapse of the favorite. And this season has seen both. So, without further ado, let’s get to it.
What can you say about the Arizona Diamondbacks? With both the Dodgers and Padres and now a surprising Giants team in the same division they weren’t expected to do much to begin with. But they’ve been just terrible and have the worst record in baseball. A 17-game losing streak will do that. At the All-Star break they were 32-1/2 games out of first place. That’s only going to get worse by season end. With the Rockies playing better ball ahead of them the Diamondbacks can expect to spend the season in last place in the west, if not the league.
The Baltimore Orioles are about where they expected to be, which is last in American League East. There is just too much talent on the four teams ahead of them. They’ve had a few high points including a no hitter from John Means. Cedric Mullins has been a bright spot in the lineup and Trey Mancini has done well in his comeback from colon cancer. But those are too few and too far between. As a team their goal, at this point, should simply be to not lose 100 games. Currently they are on pace to lose 111. At least it’s better than the Diamondbacks.
The Pittsburgh Pirates had a nice little run in 2013, ‘14, and ‘15, finishing second all three years and making the playoffs as a wild card team in each one. Since then, they have only managed one winning season. And prior to that they had a stretch of twenty consecutive losing seasons. That’s 24 losing seasons in 28 years. They were respectable the first three weeks of this season, winning about half of their games. Since then, it’s been one long nosedive into the basement where they will stay the rest of the season. Perhaps the one positive is they should finish ahead of the Diamondbacks in the National League.
The Texas Rangers signaled this was going to be a rebuilding year when they started to trade their veterans. Gone are Lance Lynn and Elvis Andrus. They didn’t re-sign Rougned Odor who went to the Yankees. In a salary dump look for them to trade some of their other veterans before the trade deadline. Looks like they will try to build a team around the talents of Adolis Garcia and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Maybe next year (but don’t bet on it.)
Like the rest of the bottom feeders here, the Detroit Tigers were not expected to do much this season. No one will accuse them of exceeding expectations but, after a slow start, they are playing competitive ball. Right hander Casey Mize has been a pleasant surprise. Throw in Jonathan Schoop and Robbie Grossman and they have a little bit of talent. Not a lot, but enough to be a pesky spoiler for any front runner who underestimates them.
The Minnesota Twins have been one of the bigger disappointments in MLB this season. They were expected to at least contend with the White Sox and Indians in the American League Central division. Instead, they find themselves 15 games out at the All-Star break. Pitching has been their biggest concern. With a lot of veteran talent and a season lost in the early going they will probably be dumping salaries at the trade deadline.
Going into the all-star break the Colorado Rockies were finally starting to put it together having gone 9-4. Of course, four of those wins came against the Diamondbacks and Pirates. Then again, they beat San Diego two out of three and St. Louis three out of four. They are playing the Dodgers coming out of the break so we will see if they are a contender or a pretender. I’m voting pretender. It is highly unlikely they can overcome the big three in the National League West.
The Washington Nationals came into the season with high expectations. Then reality set in. They have had some good stretches followed by some dreadful stretches and find themselves five games below .500 at the break. They have some talent, and nobody is running away with the National League East division. If they can show some consistency, they could still contend in the second half.
On June 24th the Chicago Cubs staff threw a combined no hitter to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers. That equaled the Major League record of seven no hitters thrown in a single season, and we weren’t even at the halfway point. It was the high point to their season so far. That accomplishment was immediately followed by an 11-game losing streak that effectively dropped the Cubs out of contention in the National League Central division. The Cubs weren’t expected to do much this season and it was a bit of a surprise to find them still in contention in late June. Since it seems more than likely both wild card teams will be coming out of the West and with an 8-game deficit the Cubs have indicated that they are going to be sellers and not buyers at the trade deadline.
The St. Louis Cardinals find themselves tied with the Cubs, also eight games out of first place. The difference here, is they were expected to contend this season. They were in first place in early June, but a disastrous month saw them go 10 and 19, including two losses at the end of May. The question now is, have they righted the ship and will they be able to climb back into the divisional race in the second half. Another bad month and they will most likely be sellers at the trade deadline.
The Atlanta Braves are another team that had high expectations this season. Remember, they were one win away from the World Series last year only to have the Los Angeles Dodgers come back from a 3-games-to-1 deficit. They have been hanging around .500 all season but in a weak Eastern division that still leaves them in easy striking distance. The loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. for the season was certainly a blow, but they reacted by trading for Joc Pederson. A stop gap measure to be sure, but how do you replace the likes of Acuna? At least they’re not throwing in the towel yet.
Good things were also expected of the Cleveland Indians and, somehow, they have managed to hang around second or third place most of the season. This, despite a rash of injuries that sidelined starting pitchers Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale. With those guys healthy again Cleveland should contend deep into the season.
The Philadelphia Phillies have been a .500 ball club for the last three seasons. The break found them at 44-44, probably not with their faithful fans had envisioned what with high expectations at the start of the season. That being said, they finished up by taking series wins from the Padres, the Cubs, and the Red Sox before the break. They have the arms to contend and hopefully that momentum will propel them forward in the second half.
The Los Angeles Angels were expected to be in contention this season but never seemed able to find traction. It was the usual story, pitching. To be sure, they have some talent with, arguably, two of the best players in baseball on the team. That would be Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. When Trout went down with an injury the season seemed to be in doubt, but the team has remained in contention with Ohtani providing the spark. With Trout coming off the IL as of this writing, it could be an interesting second half for the Angels.
The New York Yankees have the highest payroll in baseball. With that high payroll comes high expectations. Unfortunately, this year the Yankees play can be best described as inconsistent. They find themselves in third place, eight games back at the break. After the All-Star game they play division leading Boston eight out of 10 games. That could likely make or break their season.
The Toronto Blue Jays did not have huge expectations attached to them, so they have actually done better than expected. Of course, having Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette in your lineup doesn’t hurt. It’s the pitching that has been the surprise. If they can pick up a starter or some bullpen help at the trade deadline they could provide some fireworks.
The Seattle Mariners are one of several surprising teams this season. Most experts did not expect them to even contend. They are a team long on youth and inexperience playing above their heads. Even if they don’t make the playoffs this season, and making the playoffs is a possibility if they continue their hot streak leading up to the break, there is a lot of promise for the future.
The New York Mets were highly rated this season by most of the experts. They’ve had their share of misfortune though. A rash of injuries and a packed schedule, due to COVID related cancellations, have been part of the problem. Some of their veteran players not performing up to expectations has been another key. Also, 15 different pitchers have made at least one start. In spite of all this, they have forged a 3-1/2 game lead at the break in a weak division. If they can get healthy and their veterans perform up to their capabilities, the Mets control their own destiny.
The Cincinnati Reds are an enigma. Some experts had them as contenders, others as pretenders. The fact that, at the break, they are six games above .500 and in second place has to be considered a feather in their cap. A 9-2 run just before the break helped put them in the position, they find themselves. This team can definitely hit and, if the pitching holds up, they should be dangerous in the second half.
The Oakland Athletics are one of the two Bay Area teams that are surprising the rest of the league this year. Nobody really had them doing much and, with a 1-7 start, the prognosticators seemed to be correct in their assessment. After that poor start, though, they put together a 13-game winning streak, putting them at the top of the division and the top of the power rankings. While they have come back to earth some, they still led the division most of the first half until a late surge by the Astros. The Athletics and the Astros, and possibly the Angels, will be battling it out in the second half.
The Milwaukee Brewers figured to finish somewhere in the middle of the pack and, for a while, that’s about the way they played. Then, starting at the end of May, they went on a 27-8 tear. They finished 2-6 just before the break but they are still four games on top in the central division. They have great pitching and, if their hitting supports that, they will be tough to overcome. With Chicago and St. Louis seeming to fade, it may be a shootout between the Brewers and the Reds for the division title.
There is an old adage that you play to the level of your competition. The competition for the San Diego Padres is the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. This team was built to beat the Dodgers, meaning they are probably one of the top four or five teams in Major League Baseball. They have solid pitching with a lot of depth sporting the Major League best bullpen ERA of 2.85. Like their competition to the north, the Padre lineup is loaded with heavy hitters led by Fernando Tatis Jr. Both of the National League wild card teams are probably going to come out of the western division. If they don’t win the division outright, they will still probably be in the playoffs.
The Houston Astros have been one of the best teams in baseball for several years now. This year is no different. With an American league best 3.35 ERA, their starting pitching has been the best in the league. Coupled with their powerful lineup they have a +136 run differential at the break. A 28-12 surge in the last 40 games before the break allowed them to pass Oakland and build a 3-1/2 game lead in the AL Western division. Perhaps their only weakness is the bullpen. A little help there at the trade deadline and they could well run all the way to another World Series.
The Tampa Bay Rays don’t have a lot of stars. They just know how to win. They invented the concept of pitching by committee, and it seems to be working for them as they have a staff ERA of 3.50. They have also shown an ability to go on sustained hot streaks. If they make it into the playoffs and get on one of those streaks, look out.
The Boston Red Sox are another surprising team that were not supposed to do a lot this season. They’ve got a great lineup and a decent bullpen. The starters, though, are just average. Average isn’t necessarily a bad thing for a team that can hit and has the arms to close a game. Still, if they want to get to the World Series, they need to pick up a decent starter at the trade deadline. If they do that, they could be a dangerous team in the playoffs.
The Chicago White Sox have done pretty much everything they were expected to do. They have the best winning percentage in the American League at the break. With an 8-game lead in their division, they have far and away the largest lead in baseball. They have also had a lot of injuries. With players getting healthy, expect them to keep it up in the second half where they will probably cruise to the division title.
There is a reason the Los Angeles Dodgers have won eight consecutive division titles. Their ownership and management staff has put together one of the best organizations in baseball. This season the Dodgers had a season ending injury to Dustin May. World Series MVP Corey Seager has missed a significant part of the season. And there have been a host of other minor injuries, the most recent sending future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw to the IL. It seems like the players they plug in to replace their injured superstars play like All Stars themselves. It’s a testament to the best minor league system in baseball and the depth of the organization. All that being said it’s tough to repeat. The Dodgers have been to three of the last four World Series and have a huge target on their back. Three of the four or five best teams in baseball are in the National League western division. If the Dodgers have a weakness, it may be their bullpen. Although closer Kenley Jansen is having a resurgent year the rest of the pen has been inconsistent. Still, barring a complete collapse in the second half, they will be making another run at a World Series ring.
The San Francisco Giants are the biggest surprise in baseball. Not only do they lead the best division in baseball, the National League West, but they had the best record in baseball at the break. With a 2-game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers they needed every one of those wins. Personally, I credit the addition, not of a player, but the new President of Baseball Operations, Farhan Zaidi. Zaidi was hired away from the Los Angeles Dodgers and has obviously used his experience with that organization to build this team. The Giants have great team chemistry, but they are playing over their heads. The question is can they keep it up for the second half. Even with a slight downturn they should still make the playoffs as a wild card team.
So who makes the playoffs? Starting in the American League East I think it’s going to come down to the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays. I think the Rays will win the division, but the Red Sox will make the playoffs as a wild card. In the American League Central the White Sox should walk away with the division. In the American League West, it will come down to the Astros and the Athletics. The betting money says to bet the house on the Astros but I’m going to pick the Athletics with the Astros sneaking in as a wild card team.
In the National League the East is a tough division to call, primarily because it is so weak anybody could sneak in to win it. I’m going to go with the Phillies and keep my fingers crossed on that one. The Central is a little easier to call. I think it’s going to be a battle between the Brewers and the Reds and I’m going to pick the Reds to trim away that four game lead by the Brewers and take the division. The National League West is going to be the most fun to watch down the stretch. The Dodgers, Padres, and Giants are probably going to have the three best records in baseball. Two of those teams, and possibly all three, will win 100 games. Unfortunately, only one of those can win the division. The other two will come in as wildcards. With Corey Seager returning to the Dodger lineup and the way they keep plugging in All Stars from their minor league teams, I think the Dodgers are going to win the division. I say that partly because I’ve lived in Los Angeles most of my life, so I am biased.
It’s a shame that the wild card teams have only a one game playoff. I think it should be at least the best of three if not the best of five and I think that will eventually happen. This season could play a big part to spur that change. You’re going to possibly have two 100-win teams playing a one game playoff to see who advances. It hardly seems fair. But the true driving factor will be that if they go to a best of three or best of five the owners are going to get more revenue from the television networks and the fans attending the games. Surprise, it’s all about the money. All that being said, I think the Astros will beat the Red Sox in a one game wild card playoff in the American League and the Padres will beat the Giants in the National League.
In the next round of the playoffs, on the American League side you are going to have the White Sox go up against the Rays and the Red Sox against the Athletics. I pick the Rays to beat the White Sox and the Athletics to beat the Red Sox. In the National League you are going to have the Dodgers playing the Mets and the Padres playing the Reds. I will pick the Dodgers and the Padres to advance. Mainly because it seems like this is the showdown that was being dictated from the start of the season.
Now for the Pennant and the World Series. In the American League I like the Rays for being so innovative and I like the Athletics just for playing so far above their heads. I think innovation will overcome team chemistry and I will pick the Rays to win the Pennant and represent the American League in the World Series. In the National League, if I am right and it is the Dodgers against the Padres to decide the Pennant, that will be a great series. Again, because of my Dodger bias, I am going to pick the Dodgers to beat the Padres in seven games in that series. I also like the Dodgers to go on to repeat as World Series Champs, beating Tampa Bay in six games.
Check back in a little over three months to see how I did. Since I didn’t start this blog until early May I didn’t get a chance to look at the season from the start. I’m looking forward to doing that next year. I’m going to take a break for a couple of weeks as I want to add some content to my website. That is a time intensive undertaking which doesn’t leave me a lot of time for full scale blog. I will probably add a few things on my observation link so you might want to check in on that next week. In two weeks, I will be shifting back to real estate. I haven’t fully decided on the subject at this point, but I’m leaning towards making things a bit lighter with a humorous story of How I Met My Current Partner, Kevin Oliver. Until then readers hope you enjoyed this and leave some comments.