CAN ANYONE STOP THE 2022 YANKEES?

Well, MLB’s showcase All Star game is done and we officially commence the second half of the 2022 baseball season. If you didn’t see it, you missed a very entertaining game. Of all the major league sports, MLB by far, puts on the best All Star game and this year was no exception. Of course, there was the incredibly exciting Home Run Derby on Monday. Fan favorite, Albert Pujols, taking one last farewell lap before he retires, upset the favorite, Kyle Schwarber in the first round, while rookie sensation, Julio Rodriguez, went yard 31 times to defeat defending champion Pete Alonso in the second round. That was after hitting 32 dingers in the first round. Rodriguez had a bit of a power outage in the finals, belting 18 home runs to Juan Soto’s 19. Hard to believe Soto is only 23 but already has five major league seasons under his belt. He also just turned down an offer that is reportedly the richest in MLB history. It doesn’t appear he will be continuing his career in Washington but he doesn’t become a free agent until after the 2024 season. That means the Nationals have two years to make a trade. But, and it’s a big BUT, there are only a handful of teams that could afford him. It will be interesting to see where he lands.

Then there was the game itself, eventually won by the American League, (AGAIN), in a close 3 – 2 finish. There was a moving tribute to Jackie Robinson, fittingly on the 75th anniversary of his breaking the MLB color barrier with the host Los Angeles Dodgers. Mookie Betts extolled all in attendance to wish Jackie’s widow, Rachel, who happened to turn 100 that day, a happy birthday. Several of the players were mic’d, making for interesting audio. There was Shohei Otani not only promising, but delivering, on a first inning, first pitch, leadoff base hit. Only to be picked off base with a classic Clayton Kershaw pickoff move. You had Alek Manoah talking to himself on the mound, but also getting answered by John Smoltz, Joe Davis, Ken Rosenthal, and Tom Verducci in the broadcast booth. Manoah proceeded to strike out the side in the second inning. Finally, left-hander Nestor Cortes Jr. and his Yankees battery mate, Jose Trevino, let us in on their pitch-by-pitch planning through a scoreless sixth. All this happened on a warm and sunny afternoon at beautiful Dodger Stadium, second oldest ballpark in the National League, only behind Chicago’s Wrigley Field.

Where do we go from here? The season is just past the halfway point. Some teams are doing better than predicted, while others are doing worse. Then there are the New York Yankees. But that is the nature of sports prognostication. Let’s see where they all stack up compared to where I thought they were going to be. And I’ll make some predictions for the remainder of the year.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

Wow, did I ever get caught off base here. Worse than Shohei Otani even. As the season started, I had Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Boston battling it out for the division winner and two wild card positions. I had the Yankees in fourth place and Baltimore “getting absolutely pummeled” by the rest of the division. I can only point out that I am not the only one that never saw the Yankees coming. What a season they’re having. I thought not signing Aaron Judge to a long-term contract would be a distraction. But I also wrote that he might put together the best season of his young career, which is exactly what he’s doing. I also stated that, with the Yankees being Yankees, just about anything is possible. Well, they once again have shown why they are the Yankees and, even though they have fallen off the pace a tad, they are on track to ONLY win 110 games. And they still command an impressive 12-game lead in the division. Meanwhile, as predicted, Baltimore is in last place, a full 18 games behind the division leading Yankees. But what I did not foresee is that they are playing above .500 ball for the season and are only five games out of second place. Heck, they are only three-and-a-half games out of a possible wild card berth! And currently playing some of their best baseball. I did have Tampa Bay in second place which is where they find themselves now. Somehow, someway, they always seem to find a way to win. Boston also is about where I expected them to be. I had them finishing 3rd and, currently, they are in 4th, but only a game behind Toronto. Toronto is another team that has surprised me. I had them winning the division but, so far, they’ve been playing very uneven baseball.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

A couple of surprises here as well. I had Minnesota and Chicago battling it out all season, with the Sox narrowly winning the division. Minnesota has held up their end so far, but Chicago has been a no-show. Granted, they’ve had to deal with more than their share of injuries and some questionable managerial decisions. And they are only 3 games out of first place despite it all. So, they may be down, but they aren’t out. Cleveland has been a surprise. I saw them with strong pitching and questionable hitting. But it has been just the opposite in the early going. The question is, can they keep it up in the second-half? Detroit and Kansas City are both on a pace to finish with close to 100 losses. I don’t see that changing for the remainder of the season. And, with the trade deadline, rapidly approaching, they are probably going to be sellers, which means things will only get worse before they get better.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

The American League West is pretty close to what I expected, with Houston comfortably out in front by 9 games at the break. I had Seattle in second place but, for a while there, they didn’t look anyhing like the team I was expecting. A 14-game-winning streak before the break can change a lot. Obviously, they aren’t going to keep winning at this pace. But they are setting themselves up nicely for a wild card berth, breaking a streak of 20 years not making the playoffs. The Angels were a surprise, until they weren’t. I had them in 3rd possibly 4th place. At the start of the season, though, they were playing like world beaters. Then the wheels fell off and they faded rather quickly, losing their manager in the process. At 10-1/2 games out of a wild card berth, they are closer to worst than first. They have a lot of talent, obviously, but will they want to part with any of it at the trade deadline next week? The Texas Rangers are playing a little better than I expected, but the Oakland A’s aren’t. Texas, rightfully, should not have expected to win big this season but, with the addition of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, they have taken big strides, laying the groundwork for a good team in the future. Meanwhile, with the wholesale dismantling of their team at the trade deadline last year, and continuing that trend in the off season, this should have been expected, and probably was, in Oakland. The question has always been, how fast can the A’s rebuild?

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

Let’s switch our attention to the National League. I always seem to do better when predicting the Senior Circut. This is probably because I’m a lifelong Dodgers fan and tend to pay a lot closer attention to the teams in the National League. For example, for most of the first half, I had the eastern division just about right. The Mets, with their deep pockets, moved out to an early big lead. This, despite the loss of Jacob DeGroom for the entire first half and Max Scherzer for good chunk of it. It didn’t hurt that the rest of this division is pretty weak. Scherzer is back and DeGroom will be back soon so the Mets should be in a solid position for the second half. Except for one proverbial fly in the ointment in the form of a surprising Atlanta Braves team. I figured the loss of Freedy Freeman’s leadership would affect the team more than the loss of his bat, and for two months I was right. Then, out of nowhere, Atlanta began to play the kind of baseball that wins World Series. The Phillies, with a lot of hitting but little in the way of defense, held onto second for much of the first half. They cannot outpace the Mets or the Braves, who have seemingly found themselves. Miami did a slow fade early while Washington faded much more quickly and have the Soto situation to deal with. Meanwhile, the New York Mets began to struggle, ever so slightly. The result, this is now a two team race.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

Here’s another division where I made a pretty good call. I had Milwaukee and St. Louis battling it out all season and, with Milwaukee leading by half a game going into the All-Star break, this is pretty much where I expected them. Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Cincinnati are also-rans. I did think the Cubs would play better than they have, though. Closer to .500 ball anyway. I also thought the Pittsburgh Pirates would finish last for the 4th consecutive year. They are in 3^rd, but only by a few games. I don’t know if it’s a case of the Pirates playing better, or the Reds and Cubs playing worse than expected.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

With the exception of the Giants and the Padres flip-flopping places, I was pretty dead on here as well. The Dodgers have actually been something of a surprise, considering the injuries they’ve had to deal with and the uneven play on offense. Starting pitching depth was always a concern. They signed Andrew Haney to add some depth but he promptly went down. As did Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler. But, as I stated in my preseason blog, the Dodgers have an uncanny knack of turning obscure pitchers into Cy Young candidates. Enter Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Anderson. For most of the first half, the race remained close. The Rockies got off to a hot start before fading. Arizona is playing better than expected but can’t match up with the Dodgers, Padres, or Giants. Speaking of which, the Giants are starting to show signs of their age. It does not appear as though they are going to pull off their magic two years in a row. The Padres played better than expected without Tatis in line up, but they have started to fade as well. Just as the Dodgers offense has begun to click, moving out to a comfortable, 10-game lead before the break.

What does all this mean come October? Well, in the American League, barring a total collapse, the Yankees and Astros should finish comfortably in first place, earning a bye in the first round and resting their starters. In the Central division, the White Sox will continue to struggle while Cleveland will make it interesting. Ultimately, the Twins, still smarting from last seasons’ failures, win the division. As for the three wild card teams, Tampa Bay will continue to invent new ways to win games. I think Seattle will end a 20-year playoff drought. And I’m going to go out on a limb and name the Baltimore Orioles as a dark horse entry. I predict Seattle and Minnesota to advance but, ultimately, it will be the Yankees/Astros in the Championship Series, with the Yankees advancing to the World Series.

Atlanta can’t keep this up, can they? I like the Mets to prevail. Milwaukee, too, will win their division. But St. Louis will keep it close to the end. The Dodgers should win the division by a wide margin and, like the Yankees and Astros, have a rested roster. The wild card teams I like are Atlanta, San Diego, and St. Louis. San Diego and Atlanta should advance. In the second round the Dodgers and Mets will win, setting up a New York/Los Angeles Championship Series. The Dodgers advance to the World Series for another New York/LA matchup.