BASEBALL IS BACK AND ALL IS RIGHT WITH THE WORLD

Well, we are about three weeks into a new baseball season. For a while there, it looked like we weren’t going to have much of a season at all. We ended up with an abbreviated spring training and a regular season starting a week late, although they will be playing a full 162 game schedule. At the end of the day, the billionaire owners will be making even more billions, and the millionaire baseball players will be making even more millions. And you and I are going to foot the bill. There was a time when this would really wad my boxers, but it’s happened so frequently I think I’ve become immune to it. Look, sports is a business. It’s a big dollar business. I get it! We all get it! That’s because we, as the fans, are willing to spend outrageous amounts on tickets or pay premium prices to get the games on cable. Most of us think nothing of spending $30 for one hotdog, a beer, and a bag of peanuts. I grew up in a time when you could actually watch the games on TV for free. Stadiums were not named after corporations. At least Dodger Stadium was bereft of any advertising on the outfield walls. Players didn’t have corporate logos plastered all over their uniforms. “Wait a minute,” you say, “At least in baseball, players don’t wear corporate logos on their uniforms like in some sports.” WRONG! Check the new contract just signed by the owners and players. The Padres just modeled a uniform with the Motorola logo prominently displayed on the right shoulder sleeve. It’s all about how much money the owners can squeeze out of the game by any means necessary. And, of course, the more the owners make the more the players expect to be paid. That is simply the reality of the game in the year 2022. The game is always changing and evolving. You either accept it and move with it or you walk away from it.

This is the ninth instance in my lifetime that the game has been delayed, or stopped altogether, due to a player strike or an owners lock out. Every time it happens a group of fans will suggest boycotting the games. Some probably even go through with it. Most do not. Here’s the reality. Fans are always going to return to the game. Ticket prices may go up, we may have to pay more for cable, concession prices will reach ridiculous levels, and the fans will continue to pay. Sure, some may fall by the wayside, but they are quickly replaced. With the advent of the Internet, fan boycotts can become a little bit more organized, but it still amounts to little more than a man pissing into the wind. The system of sports, as it exists today, is not going to change. A wise man once said there is no point stressing about something over which you have no control. I choose to roll with it and enjoy the game rather than stress out on self-righteous indignation.

Now that I’ve had my rant, I’ll climb down off my soapbox and get to the good stuff. Predictions! It’s the start of a new season and everybody starts off even. In March and April everyone has World Series aspirations. Of course, many of those with such aspirations are watching the game through rose-colored glasses. There are 30 teams in MLB and, under the new format for 2022, twelve of those will make the playoffs. That’s each of the six divisional winners plus six wild card teams. That means, come October, eighteen teams will be on the outside looking in through those rose-colored glasses. Of the twelve teams that make it, well, anything can happen. The Atlanta Braves won the World Series last year after playing sub .500 ball from most of the season…until August. The 1988 Dodgers are usually considered to be one of the worst World Series champions of all time, but they happened to get hot when they needed to.

There was a lot going on this past winter in one of the strangest off seasons that I can remember. A lot of teams got stronger, some maintained status quo, and a few probably got weaker. At least that’s the consensus on paper. Oftentimes reality is quite different. It’s a long season and you can’t account for injuries, team chemistry, and just plain old bad luck. You can have some of the best players on the planet, but if their personalities don’t mesh, they’re not going to win a lot of games. Okay, the Oakland A’s of the 1970s were the exception to that rule. Those guys hated each other. But they won the World Series in 1972, ’73, and ’74 in spite of all that hate. For this exercise in baseball prognostication, I’m going to look at each division, team by team, and come up with 12 predictions for the postseason.

Without further ado and in no particular order…

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

HOUSTON ASTROS (95 – 67 in 2021)

It seems like every year the Astros are losing a superstar player, or their manager, or their general manager. But they just keep rolling along. You can now add Carlos Correa to a list that includes Gerrit Cole and George Springer. Losing Correa to free agency was a solid hit for them, pun intended. But this year, for once they seem to have the arms on the pitching staff to offset that offensive loss. Justin Verlander is back and, even though his record is only 1 – 1 he carries a 1.89 ERA. He lost his first start of the season to the Angels 2 – 0. Then in his second start he threw eight shutout innings against the Mariners in a game Houston won 4 – 0. His only slipup came in his last start against the Blue Jays when he gave up three runs in six innings, which really isn’t all that horrible. Otherwise, he’s looked solid. And it’s not just Verlander out there trying to carry the load. Houston has some depth with the likes of youngsters Framber Valdez (28), Luis Garcia (25), Jose Urquidy (26), and Christian Javier (25). They’ll need those guys because the offense has been sporadic. As of this writing they were 8 – 7, and in fourth place, but it’s very early in the season. With the talent and depth they have, they should be able to put it all together and win a weak division.

SEATTLE MARINERS (90 – 72)

Is this the year they break the streak? Twenty years without a playoff appearance the longest active streak in any of the major North American sports leagues. They came oh so closed last year, winning 90 games and missing a playoff spot by two victories. The expanded playoff format this year should benefit them. But they also went out and helped themselves. They made two big trades this winter. The addition of Adam Frazier, a solid hitter, should help them move up from 22nd place in total runs last year. The big trade, though, brought Jesse Winkler and third baseman and Eugenio Suarez. They also signed Robbie Ray, the reigning Cy Young award winner, as well as reliever Sergio Romo. This is a young team. Most of the players are in their 20s and none on the Major League roster older than 31. They should challenge Houston all season long and the division could well be decided on how they do against Houston head-to-head. Unfortunately, many other teams in the American League improved their rosters as well so I have them finishing second behind Houston with an outside shot as a wild card entry. But even should they get into the playoffs, they probably won’t go far. This is a team that is being built for the future. So even if they don’t break the streak this year they will break it in the next two or three years.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS (77 – 85)

Every year it seems the story is the same with the Angels. Pitching! They seem to have a revolving door for their starters. This year they attempted to stop the hemorrhaging with the acquisition of Noah Syndergaard from the Mets. Even if Syndergaard is able to pitch somewhere close to his old form, he just came off Tommy John surgery. So how many innings can they seriously expect from him. They did draft a lot of pitchers recently but most of them are still a year or two away from being able to pitch at the Major League level. The other problem the Angels have, has to do with their regular lineup. Any team that can put Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon on the field has to be considered dangerous. Unfortunately, the Angels usually aren’t that team. That combination has only played in 50 of a possible 222 games over the past two seasons. Last year the three were in the starting lineup in only 18 of 162 games. Already Mike Trout has missed several games this season when hit on the hand by a pitch. Being from LA, the Angels are probably my second favorite team (behind the Dodgers of course). I’d like to see them do well but too much can go wrong to wreck their season. If the stars align properly, they could see their way into the playoffs as a wild card. Based on recent history that’s a big if. Personally, I think they are a third-place team and out of the running by mid-September.

OAKLAND A’S (86 – 76)

It’s another rebuilding year for the A’s, as evidenced by the trade of Matt Olson to the Braves and Matt Chapman to the Blue Jays. The thing about the A’s, though, is it seems as though they are always rebuilding. But they have a smart front office and tend to rebound quickly, more quickly than most teams. Year in and year out they seem to do more with less. Currently, they have a lot of older guys on the roster, age 30 years plus. While you shouldn’t expect a lot from this group, I suspect they will probably do better than most people give them credit for. I also expect to see a lot of trades with a push towards youth in their farm system. This year, though, they are definitely a second or third tier team. I expect them to battle with the Angels for the third spot in the division. Also, like the Angels, I think they will probably fall out of contention as we get into the final month of the season.

TEXAS RANGERS (60 – 102)

Last season the Rangers had more holes to fill than a golf course with a gopher infestation. So, this winter they went out and spent half a billion dollars signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. That’s billion with a B! Those guys will be fun to watch, and they do fill two of those holes, but the rest of the lineup remains suspect. Still, you have to give the Rangers credit for going in the right direction. Aside from Seager and Semien they picked up John Gray, Mitch Garver, Brad Miller, Kole Calhoun, Matt Carpenter, Martin Perez, and Garrett Richards. While the lineup is drastically altered, how much these guys will contribute is still a question mark. But just about anything is an improvement over last year. This is surely a long-term rebuilding project. For now, the best of Rangers can hope for is not to repeat triple digits in the loss column. With this lineup they can probably accomplish at least that. Although they are off to their usual poor start. As of this writing they were 6 – 11, in last place, and projected to lose 104 games based on the current winning percentage… err, losing percentage.