WAIT UNTIL NEXT YEAR!

This is an all too familiar phrase in the baseball lexicon, a mantra many fans have learned to live with for decades. Were you a Cubs fan, you chanted those four ubiquitous words at the end of every baseball season for 108 long years. Some years you were chanting them by the All Star break! Those four words were becoming all too familiar to my own beloved Los Angeles Dodgers. We wandered in the wilderness for 32 years before we finally were able to smile and look down on the rest of the baseball world. Let’s be realistic here. There are 30 Major League baseball teams and only one can be the World Series champ. If a different team were to win the World Series every year that means your teams’ turn comes around about once every three decades. As it was with the Dodgers, until last year when they were able to stand atop the baseball world, index finger upraised, and chant four different words. “We are number one!”

With the just concluded season, Dodgers fans once again find themselves waiting. I will simply say congratulations on a year that started with high hopes and high expectations and went off the rails very early on. The Dodgers finished with a team that was probably playing over their heads. They started the season with seven potential starting pitchers, three of them former Cy Young award winners. They added another former Cy Young award winner along the way. But they finished the season with just three healthy starters, two of them sore armed and pitching on short rest. They used a total of 61 different players during the season and 36 different players spent time on the IL, both franchise records. All-star Corey Seager, the 2020 World Series MVP, missed over 60 games with a broken finger. Cody Bellinger started the season recovering from off season shoulder surgery suffered when he separated his shoulder celebrating a home run in Game 7 of the 2020 NLCS. He then missed over two months with a broken leg and late in the season missed several games with fractured ribs. In the equivalent of half a season, the 2019 National League MVP hit only .165 with 10 home runs and 36 RBIs. Three-time Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw sat out over two months with forearm and elbow inflammation. He came back in September for three weeks but then had to shut it down for the rest of the season with the same problem. Pitchers Caleb Ferguson, Tommy Kahnle, Jimmy Nelson, and Dustin May all had their seasons shut down prematurely with Tommy John surgery. As a stop gap, the Dodgers signed Cole Hamels, a former World Series MVP, and promptly put him on the IL with left shoulder problems, paying him $1M NOT to pitch for them. Mookie Betts, already having a poor season (for him), had to sit out games in late July and again in mid-August with inflammation in his right hip. Edwin Rios, who was supposed to back up Justin Turner at third base, played all of one month before having season ending shoulder surgery. AJ Pollock, having the best season of his career, was on the IL twice, first in mid-May with a left hamstring strain and again at the beginning of September with a right hamstring strain. Then, in the last game of the season, Max Muncy hyper extended and dislocated his elbow, taking him out for the rest of the season. In game 3 of the NLCS, Justin Turner pulled a hamstring which would have kept him out of the World Series had they gone that far. Finally, in game 5 of the NLCS, Joe Kelly injured the bicep of his throwing arm, which ended his season. Even the Dodgers, with their vaunted depth, could not overcome all of these injuries. It makes one appreciate the accomplishment of the 2019 season, when the Dodgers managed go the entire season without a major injury. Really, in any sport, half the battle of winning a championship is just keeping your key players healthy. Especially in baseball, with a six-month season consisting of 162 games, this is extremely difficult.

Now, with their 2021 season in the books, the Los Angeles Dodgers have some big decisions to make regarding their free agents. Not only for the 2022 season but any financial decisions made this year could impact 2023, which has even larger free agent decisions. Eligible players become free agents the day after the World Series ends. What! There is still baseball being played! Free agents can’t sign with a new team until five days after the World Series. So, who stays and who goes?

Perhaps the biggest area of concern is pitching. More specifically, starting pitching. Considered a strength at the start of the 2021 season, Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitching had become a liability by the end of the year. It wasn’t that the pitchers underperformed either. Three pitchers, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, and Max Scherzer are in the Cy Young conversation. Clayton Kershaw might have been there as well, if not for injuries. For most of the season, Buehler pitched like the ace of the staff, finally starting to apparently run out of gas a bit towards the end of the season. Urias was the only 20 game winner in the major leagues this season. Nobody else had more than 17 wins. After a deadline trade, Scherzer came over to the Dodgers and, for five games, pitched like the reincarnation of Cy Young, before developing a dead arm late in the season. As a starter, Dustin May showed a lot of promise. Before ending his season with Tommy John surgery, he had a 1-1 record in five starts. This included a 2.74 ERA with 35 strikeouts and 6 walks in 23 innings. That is as good a five-man rotation as you will find anywhere in baseball, and they all pitched up to and exceeded expectations. The bullpen was one of the best in baseball during the second half with Kenley Jansen re-establishing himself as one of the best closers in the game. And guys like Joe Kelly, Blake Treinen, David Price, Brusdar Graterol, Tony Gonsolin, and Corey Knebel stepping up and getting outs when they were needed.

CLAYTON KERSHAW

Kershaw looms as the biggest free agent uncertainty. Three-time Cy Young Award winner, eight-time All Star, Gold Glove winner, and the 2014 MVP. He is always a part of the conversation when it turns to the best left-handed pitcher of his generation, much less all time. Or conversations about the greatest Dodger’s pitcher of all time. That’s a list that includes names like Newcombe, Koufax, Drysdale, Sutton, Valenzuela, and Hershiser. He will be 33 next year and has become increasingly fragile the past few seasons. There are also his well-documented struggles in the postseason. I think that those struggles can be explained that by October he is probably running on fumes. After all those innings his arm is just tired. after the pandemic shortened 2021 season, we saw a rested Kershaw dominate in the postseason. I have a radical proposition. Make Kershaw the closer! It’s not unprecedented. The Atlanta Braves did it with John Smoltz with great success. It will also probably prolong Kershaw’s career. Smoltz pitched until he was 42. Kershaw may not throw with the blazing speed of today’s typical closer, but he has pinpoint location, a high strikeout to walk ratio, and doesn’t give up hits. He simply gets outs. That’s what you want your closer to do. The question is, will Kershaw accept that role. I am thinking not. Clayton considers himself a starter and will probably want to remain a starter. But consider the upside with Kershaw in the bullpen. It gives the Dodgers someone that has experience as a starter and can fill that role in a pinch. The Dodgers also have several bullpen pitchers that have experience closing for other teams. Any one of them could step into that position for Kershaw if he was called upon to start in an emergency. It would also be a nice luxury to have a rested Kershaw in the bullpen at playoff time. This all plays well into the Dodger’s philosophy of having players that can play multiple positions. Regardless of where they use him, starter or closer, signing Kershaw will come at a high price. There is sure to be a lot of interest in him in the free agent market. And here’s the thing. Kershaw, on the backside of his career, is probably still better than 75% of the starters out there. I predict he will stay with the Dodgers.

MAX SCHERZER

Scherzer certainly demonstrated that he still has that competitive fire in his belly and the ability to throw his four-seam fastball in the mid-90s for strikes, even at the age of 37. Over the course of a 14-year career he has seemingly done it all. MLB All Star? Done it eight times! Wins leader? Done it four times! Won the Cy Young award? Three times! National League strikeout leader? Also done it three times! Threw an immaculate inning (three strikeouts on nine pitches)? Done it three times! Pitched a no hitter? Twice! Won the World Series? Once with the Washington Nationals in 2019! 3000 career strikeouts? Done! With 190 career wins he will almost surely surpass 200 wins next season. He will command a high price in free agency but, due to his age, will probably only get a two or possibly three-year deal. Not sure if that matters to Max. I think the only thing on his agenda is to win another World Series. To that end, he probably won’t necessarily go to the team that offers him the most money, but more likely to the team that offers him the best chance to win a World Series. Last season he almost went to the San Diego Padres at the trade deadline until the Dodgers stole him away at the last second. Could the Padres return the favor in the offseason? Could the San Francisco Giants make an offer? The Dodgers surely don’t want him going to a team in their own division. If he doesn’t stay in Los Angeles, wherever Max ends up, the Dodgers will probably have to face him in the playoffs at some point. I predict the Dodgers are thinking longer term and turning to their farm system for pitching help and will probably let Max go. Please, anywhere but San Francisco.

KENLEY JANSEN

Kenley Jansen is another big question mark for the Dodgers. His just completed contract paid out $80M over five years. He seemed to peak in 2017 when his cut fastball was one of the nastiest on the planet and practically unhittable. The next three years saw a downward spiral with a loss of velocity and movement on his fastball. It got so bad that some of the hometown fans were even booing him. It’s never fun to hear boos in your hometown. But this year he seemingly reinvented himself by changing his offseason workout routine and concentrating on agility rather than strength. He also added a 2-seam fastball and a slider to his pitching repertoire. His cut fastball picked up 1-1/2 miles in velocity and began to move again. He posted 38 saves and a 2.22 ERA, his best numbers in three years. He even overcame a nasty stint right after the All-Star break in which he blew 3 consecutive saves. That had his detractors predicting a return to the old Jansen. Instead, the Dodger’s all-time saves leader just got better. His ability to once again closeout games is one of the main reasons they won 106 games and got as far as they did in the playoffs, where he was almost unhittable. He will be 34 next season and early on there was some speculation that the Dodgers would not be offering a contract beyond the 2021 season. I would like to see how his career progresses from here, hopefully as a Dodger. If the Dodgers take my advice (they won’t) and make Kershaw their closer, then Jansen becomes expendable. They have other pitchers on the staff that are capable of closing but if Jansen is back to his nasty self, they may decide to keep him. On this one I honestly say flip a coin.

TREVOR BAUER

Here’s a name that hasn’t been mentioned yet. Bauer came to the Dodgers last year as a free agent on a 3-year contract after winning the Cy Young in 2020. He was the fourth former Cy Young Award winner on the Dodgers. Scherzer, Kershaw, and David Price being the other three. Bauer is known to have a tremendous arm as he once threw a baseball over the 410-foot marker in centerfield from the pitchers’ mound after a bad inning. More recently he is known for the spin rate and movement on his ball which propelled him to the Cy Young Award in 2020. While he doesn’t become a free agent until 2024, Bauer can opt out in each of the next two seasons. Bauer represents a tricky situation for the Dodgers, what with his legal problems. Personally, I think he was set up. Apparently, there is enough evidence to support this theory that the DA refused to press charges. Now Major League Baseball is doing its’ own independent investigation and has placed him on administrative leave. With several extensions, they effectively shut down his season before it really had a chance to begin. MLB is concerned with its’ image. I can understand that but, with the DA’s reluctance to press charges, I think baseball would have been better off to just drop the whole thing. By now it would have been yesterday’s news and all but forgotten. As it is, Bauer’s future is uncertain. Baseball could still suspend him for next season. I don’t think they will, since he seems to have cooperated right down the line. I also don’t think he will opt out next season as, after all that has gone down this season, I don’t think he can get a better deal anywhere else. The Dodgers too, are very image conscious, so the question is, if MLB clears the way, will they keep Bauer on the roster. With the money invested, $102 million over three years guaranteed, I don’t think they have much choice. Also, at 30 years old, Bauer is in his prime as a pitcher. I look for Bauer to be on the mound for the Dodgers next season.

JOE KELLY

Joe Kelly becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2023 but the Dodgers have a club option with a $4 million buyout for 2022. That is against a $25 million salary for the year. He is another 33-year-old pitcher, joining Kershaw and Jansen in that group. Kelly pitched well last year. He appeared in 48 games, mostly short relief, pitching 44 innings. He posted a 2-0 record with a 2.86 ERA. His strikeout to walk ratio was about 3 to 1. He had a couple of stints on the IL, missing a total of 45 games. I don’t think the Dodgers will exercise the buyout, opting to keep him in the bullpen. Of course, that could be contingent on the severity of the bicep strain he suffered in the NLCS.

COREY KNEBEL

In limited use last season Knebel pitched in 27 games (25 2/3 innings) posting a 4-0 record to go with a 2.45 ERA, 30 strikeouts, and 9 walks. He missed 92 games with a right lat strain. He will be 30 in November so is entering his prime. When he pitched last season, he looked good, especially in the playoffs. He just came off a one-year $5.25M contract. He will probably want a little more money and definitely something longer term. If they can work out the length of the contract, I think the Dodgers can retain him fairly inexpensively. I predict he will be pitching for the Dodgers next year on probably a three-year contract in the $30M to $45M range.

COREY SEAGER

This is the contract that has everyone talking at the office water cooler. Do they still do that? Corey just came off a one year $13.75 million deal. He will be 28 next April 27th. That happens to be my birthday also, so there is that. I won’t be 28 but I will be celebrating the 36th anniversary of my 28th birthday, so there is that too. Rookie of the year, All Star, World Series MVP, all are reasons he is considered one of the best shortstops in baseball. He has said he wants to stay in Los Angeles. I am sure the Dodgers feel the same way. But to keep him, they will have to dig deep into their wallet. This is also one of the richest shortstop free agencies in years with names like Carlos Correa, Trevor story, Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, and Brandon Crawford, to name just a few, all on the market. The Dodgers could decide to sign another quality shortstop at a lower price. They also have the option of moving Trea Turner, another excellent shortstop, back to his natural position from second base, where he has been playing since the Dodgers acquired him at the trade deadline. Personally, I would like to see Corey stay with the Dodgers but with so many less expensive options it’s hard to see that happening. Still, I’m crossing my fingers and hoping it does.

CHRIS TAYLOR

At 31, Chris Taylor just had a spectacular postseason to go along with a pretty solid regular season which included his first All Star appearance. He went into a bit of a slump during the second half of the season but came on like gangbusters in the postseason. First, in the wild card game against St. Louis, he hit a walk off 2-run home run. It was only the second time the Dodgers had beaten the Cardinals in a post season series in seven tries. Then he clobbered three home runs in Game 5 of the NLCS (I was at that game) against the Atlanta Braves. Acquired from the Seattle Mariners during the 2016 season, Chris is a fan favorite and has now been a Dodger for six seasons. He just completed a two-year $13.4 million contract. After the postseason he just had, I am sure there will be a lot of interest and he will probably get the same amount, or more, for one year. Although I’m sure he is looking for something in the two-to-four-year range. I think the Dodgers keep either Chris Taylor or Corey Seager but not both.

ALBERT PUJOLS

The Dodgers have a total of 19 free agents this season. I’m not going to talk about all of them but wanted to focus on the big names and the big needs, which is why the list is pitcher heavy. Normally I wouldn’t include Albert here, but I have to because, well, he’s Albert Pujols. He is one of the greatest right-handed hitters the game has ever seen, a guaranteed Hall of Famer. He was a tremendous addition to the Dodgers this season. Not just with his bat, but also with his presence, his experience, his camaraderie. He was simply a great teammate. Unfortunately, where the Dodgers are concerned, I think it’s probably one and done. There is a lot of talk about the National League switching to the designated hitter next season. That would be a great opportunity for Albert to play two or three more years if he wants to. Actually, I think it would be a great finale if he were to sign a one-year contract and play his last year where it all began, with the St. Louis Cardinals. Wherever he ends up, I wish him the best of luck, as does a grateful Dodger nation.

At the start, I said that the Dodgers had to consider their financial decisions for the 2022 season because of the impact they will have on the 2023 season. As you can see from the above list, they have a lot of big-name players that are going to become available. When making offers and signing players they will need to consider how much money they have left for next season because there are probably more key players eligible for free agency in 2023. Here is a short list of those players:

David Price, age 37 in 2023, 38 in August. Makes $31M.

Blake Treinen, age 35 in 2023. Free agent in 2024. Club option in 2023. Makes $8.75M.

Joe Kelly, age 35 in 2023. Club option in 2022. Makes $12M.

Trea Turner, age 30 in 2023. Makes $18.5M.

Austin Barnes, age 33 in 2023. Makes $2.6M.

AJ Pollock, age 35 in 2023. Free agent in 2024. Player option in 2023. Makes $10M.

Justin Turner, age 38 in 2023. Free agent in 2024. Club option in 2023. Makes $16M.

Max Muncy, age 32 in 2023, 33 in August. Free agent in 2024. Club option in 2023. Makes $13M.

As one can see from the above list, the Dodgers free agent decisions this year could very well impact potential signings in 2023. It’s a delicate balancing act. One of the Dodger strengths under the current regime has been their farm system. Fans would do well to pay attention to upcoming players. The team already has some young talent on the major league roster. It seems like Walker Buehler has been on the staff for years, but he is still only 26 and not eligible for free agency until after the 2025 season. Phil Bickford is a pitcher acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers. He had good stuff in the playoffs and, at age 25, he is eligible after the 2027 season. Pitcher Brusdar Graterol is 22 years old and has shown the ability to throw some nasty stuff. He will be eligible after the 2026 season. Hopefully Dustin May has a complete recovery from Tommy John surgery. If so, he has a great future. At age 23 he won’t become a free agent until after the 2026 season. Julio Urias is still only 24 and will become eligible after the 2024 season. Catcher Will Smith, at 26 years, will become eligible for free agency after the 2026 season. Second baseman Gavin Lux is 23 and also becomes eligible after the 2026 season. Codey Bellinger is 25 and three years away from free agency. That’s three years to fix what went wrong in 2021.

One other item of note that could affect free agent signings. The current labor agreement expires on December 1 and right now neither side has given any indication that they are anywhere close to an agreement. If they don’t have one in place, then the two sides have about three months to come to an agreement before spring training starts in late February. We could very well be looking at a strike come March 31, the day of the first official games of the 2022 season.

I have one last item on my baseball agenda. This blog has been longer than usual, so I want to say I appreciate and thank you, my dear readers, for sticking with me. At the All-Star break I made some playoff predictions. Most of those predictions fared pretty well. I had the Dodgers facing off against the Braves in the NLCS series with the winner taking on the Houston Astros in the World Series. My only misstep was having the Dodgers beating the Braves and going to the Series. So it’s the Braves taking on the Asterisks and I have mixed feelings on this one. On the one hand, the Braves’ Joc Pederson has a chance to become only the ninth player to win consecutive World Series on two different teams. Joctober is a former Dodger, and I really would like to see him succeed here. Also, I still haven’t forgiven Houston for stealing signs during the 2017 World Series and robbing the Dodgers. If the Dodgers can’t extract some revenge, at least maybe the Braves can. I’m also a Dusty Baker fan, the manager of Houston, going back to his playing days with the Dodgers. He was brought into Houston after the cheating scandal to clean up the mess and put a good face back on the organization. He really had nothing to do with the scandal. Dusty is a great manager and has had success wherever he went. He even took the Giants to the World Series. But he has never won a World Series as a manager. At 72 this may be his last chance and I’d like to see him win. I’m pulling for Atlanta, but I think Houston will win it.